And I thought the economic meltdown was bad.  Nothing compared to a computer crash I recently encountered.  Problem was that it was the computer with all of my programmed MLS searches and historical data for this blog.  We’re up and running again after the rebuild, reinstallation of software, and reconfiguring my searches and formats.  Thank goodness for all the backed up stuff.   I was also excited to finally see the mock up of the improved blog site this week.  I’m hoping it will be up and running in  a couple of weeks  at most.  There will be significant improvement in the graphics, functionality, organization and increased data.

A quick summary of the information contained in the spreadsheets and chart below.  Active Listings inventory is continuing to grow as evidenced by the upward trend line in the chart over the previous three years at essentially the same time period.  Pending Sales are showing a downward trend which may be an encouraging sign if you are a “short sale” buyer.  I won’t be able to verify theory this until I perform my Short Sale/REO survey next week, but if things are as I suspect, the Pending inventory has artificially been exaggerated by the longer periods of time that Short Sale transactions have been in escrow.  I’m wondering if these Short Sale transactions in the Pending pipeline are starting to close escrow because the closed sale transactions (Sold) are up considerably.  Again, next weeks numbers may confirm this theory.  Until then, enjoy your Labor Day weekend next week.

August 29, 2010 Spreadsheet

August 29. 2010 Chart

August 30, 2009 Spreadsheet

August 24, 2008 Spreadsheet

August 26, 2007 Spreadsheet

August 29, 2004 Spreadsheet

As I was not able to post anything last week, there is a lot of data posted below this week.  I am in the process of upgrading this site and I’m learning how to do some new things.

This post will focus more on the data from last week because it includes the closed escrow information for the entire month of July.  Additionally, there was an article in the San Francisco Chronicle on August 9, 2010 by Carolyn Said entitled: “Bay Area housing market stabilizing.  But ZIP code survey shows checkered pattern.”  My surveys indicate that the part about the “checkered pattern” is evident in the market I survey but I think that ZIP codes, particularly in my market area, are poor geographic criteria to judge market conditions.  For example, the San Mateo Park subdivision consists of ZIP codes 94401 and 94402.  94401 also serves other parts of San Mateo where prices and market conditions are quite different from San Mateo Park.  The same can be said for ZIP Code 94402.

Another quote from the article that is consistent with my survey is: “Inventory levels are staring to increase as more “side-line sellers’ no longer can wait and put their homes in the market.  A big influx of that pent-up supply could drive down prices again.”  The Active inventory in my survey of the six communities is up 16% over the same time period last July.  The number of listings in the Active status has been increasing each year; 274 (2007), 336 (2008), 262 (2009) and 420 (2010).

Pending sales continue to be rising each year in the survey, but I think those numbers are skewed by the large number of sales that are short sales and have longer escrow periods that require lender approval of the short pay.

Closed escrows are lower this July (115) than July 2009 (130).  Interestingly, 49 of the 115 Closed transactions sold for the asking price or higher.  Of the 49 Closed transactions 11 of them were Short Sales and 1 was an REO.  Of the 11 Short Sales, 8 of them sold for the asking price or higher.  The one REO sold for $10,000 under the asking price.

Referencing back to the comment in the article about a “checkered pattern”; I like to look specifically at the City of San Mateo because it has the greatest amount of activity of the six communities in the survey and has a very diverse market with regard to price ranges.  Not included in data below is a survey that I did of all the homes that went into contract for the month of July.  75% of the home sales ratified in the lower 25% of price ranges were short sales.  In the higher price ranges there are homes that languish on the market, most likely a result of overly optimistic pricing and those that have had multiple offers for significant amounts above the asking price.  Surprisingly many of the successful offers in the multiple offer situations are “All Cash” buyers.

Next week, I hope to have the time so look at the information on the homes that sold in San Mateo for the highest price in July for a four year period; $2,500,000 (2007), $2,675,000 (2008), $3,680,000 (2009) and $2,388,750 (2010).  I think the prices for these properties were attributed more to the uniqueness and desirability than to actual appreciated or depreciated values.

Lastly, thank you to all who have commented and encouraged me either within this blog or in person.  I appreciate your support and patience during the development of this site.  I expect the new site will, among other things, enable better RSS feeds, e-mail sign-ups, differentiation of weekly, monthly and annual data and improve my ability to respond to your comments.

LAST WEEK:

August 1, 2010 Spreadsheet

August 1, 2010 Chart

August 1, 2010 Short Sales

August 1, 2010 REO

August 2, 2009 Spreadsheet

August 3, 2008 Spreadsheet

August 5, 2007 Spreadsheet

August 1, 2004 Spreadsheet

THIS WEEK:

August 8, 2010 Spreadsheet

August 8, 2010 Chart

August 9, 2009 Spreadsheet

August 10, 2008 Spreadsheet

August 12, 2007 Spreadsheet

August 8, 2008 Spreadsheet