We Realtors are quite frequently asked if the sales data for distressed properties affect the values of  non-distressed sale homes.  The matter really depends on several factors, which I plan to discuss next week.  In an effort to explore the data regarding this question, I’ve expanded the amount of data for Short Sales and REOs and have posted them in this blog.  As this is a highly time-consuming effort, in the future I will be doing this type of report at the end of each month.   This week are the explanations for the types of reports posted in the blog.

June 27, 2010 Spreadsheet

The link to the spreadsheet above is for single family residences only on the date posted and for the communities listed.  Any link identified in this blog as a “Spreadsheet” is basically the same but for different time periods.

June 27,2010 Chart

The link above to the Chart is intended to give  a visual historical representation of the same communities comparing the current time period with the same time periods for the previous three years.

June 27, 2010 Short Sales

The link to the spreadsheet above is  one of the newly expanded postings.  It is set up similarly to the other basic spreadsheets but with data only applying to those homes listed in MLS as Short Sale.  Please note that this spreadsheet now includes Maximum, Median and Minimum pricing for properties in the Active, Pending and Month-to-date listing statuses.  In the Sold Status, the number of properties that sold at or above the asking price are noted, as well as the price differentials for the Maximum, Median and Minimum priced homes.

June 27, 2010 REO

The link to the spreadsheet above is another one of the newly expanded postings.  It is set up similarly to the other basic spreadsheets but with data only applying to those homes listed in MLS as a REO (Bank Owned).  Please note that this spreadsheet now includes Maximum, Median and Minimum pricing for properties in the Active, Pending and Month-to-date listing statuses.  In the Sold Status, the number of properties that sold at or above the asking price are noted, as well as the price differentials for the Maximum, Median and Minimum priced homes.

June 28,2009 Spreadsheet

June 22, 2008 Spreadsheet

June 24, 2007 Spreadsheet

The three spreadsheets links listed above contain the three-year historical raw data that is used in the June 27, 2010 Chart above.

June 27, 2004 Spreadsheet

The link to the 2004 Spreadsheet above is provided for historical perspective.  2004 was the year between 1999 to date that had the greatest number of homes and condominium/townhome closed sales in all of San Mateo County.

I hope you find the information I’ve provided useful and will visit for my expanded narrative on this data next week.  Enjoy our beautiful summer weather!

I’m getting mixed messages from my survey these past few weeks about what’s going on in our real estate market and I think it’s because the micro markets based on location and prices are as varied as I’ve seen in recent memory.

Properties in the Active status:  As of June 20, 2010 there were 407 homes.  This is up slightly from 403 last week and up 8% over last year at this time. According to my surveys, the last time Active inventory exceeded 400 homes was April 29, 2001 at 415 and it remained above 400 until October 14, 2001 when it dropped to 399. (I’ve been doing these surveys since 1998, but only started saving them around August, 2000.)

Active Listings Mixed messages by city.

Where the Active inventory has increased over the previous year:

City:                                       This week                            Last week                            Last year

Burlingame                         67                                           64 (up 4.7%)                       57 (up 17.5%)

Hillsborough                       95                                           102 (down 6.9%)              75 (up 26.7%)

San Mateo                          160                                         156 (up 2.6%)                     149 (up 7.4%)

Where the Active inventory has decreased over the previous year:

Foster City                          21                                           18 (up 16.7%)                     34 (down 38.2%)

Properties in the Pending status:  As of June 20, 2010 there were 224 homes.  This is up 4.7% (214) last week and up 21% (185) over last year at this time. This increase is heavily influenced by the number of short sales in this status.  More Short Sales data later in this blog.

All of the cities in this survey with the exception of San Mateo have been relatively consistent with the exception of San Mateo. 

                                                This week                            Last week                            Last year

San Mateo                          111                                         109 (nominal)                    85 (up 30.6%)

Properties in the Month-to-date Sold status:  As of June 20, 2010 there were 77 homes.  Again this number of closed units for the combined six communities is relatively consistent with the three prior years.  There were 74 (2007), 74 (2008), 81 (2009) and 77 currently.

Where the Sold inventory has increased over the previous year:              

                                                This week                            Last year              Homes that sold at or above list price

Belmont                               16                                           12 (up 33%)                                        7

San Mateo                          41                                           33 (up 24%)                                        20

Where the Sold inventory has decreased over the previous year:

Burlingame                         6                                              15 (down 60%)                                  1

It’s too early to draw conclusions about the condition of the single family residence market in these cities because of what I see waiting in the wings of the Pending Sales.  Burlingame currently has 37 homes in the Pending status compared to 33 at this time last year.  Belmont is down slightly with 29 currently Pending compared to 33 at this time last year.  San Mateo is up significantly with 111 Pending sales compared to 85 last year.  Part of the surge, particularly in San Mateo is driven by the demand for Short Sale properties.  51 of the 111 Pending San Mateo transactions are Short Sales.  There a total of 224 sales Pending in all six surveyed communities with 77 (34.4%) of them being Short Sales.  There were 77 total Closed transactions and only 9 (11.7%) Short Sales and all nine were in San Mateo.  The total number of 9 Closed Short Sales in 20 days of the month is an improvement over the 6 for the entire month of May in all six communities.

Curious about the time on the market, I looked deeper into the specifics of those Short Sale transactions.  Of the 9, the one that took the shortest period of time from listing to close of escrow was a property where Wachovia was the only lender and it was a loan that they keep in their portfolio.  Being a portfolio loan meant there was no negotiations with an investor who purchased the loan as a mortgage backed security.  Wachovia makes the decisions for Short Sale approvals directly and can accomplish the approval process in 37 days or less from offer acceptance.  The next two shorter listing and escrow periods were on properties that only had a first mortgage and therefore only one investor and one servicing lender was involved in the transaction.  Still these transactions took significantly longer than a typical transaction.  I will provide more data on these transactions and hopefully more at month’s end.  Until next week, enjoy your summer.

6/20/2010 Spreadsheet

6/20/2010 SS/REO

6/20/2010 Chart

6/21/2009 Spreadsheet

6/22/2008 Spreadsheet

6/17/2007 Spreadsheet

6/20/2004 Spreadsheet