Thanks to those who have provided the positive comments to my blog. As the data in my blog would be of interest to a very finite market, I am pleased to hear that someone outside of my office is finding it of value. It was never my intention to comment on the market place in a national or statewide basis. The media does that well enough. My intention was to demonstrate that the data for the areas I survey are different than other regions and there are differences within these communities.
The current Active inventory is lower than 2008 and 2009, and when combined with higher demand and several other factors, one should expect prices to stabilize at worst. Our current active inventory is 46% higher than it was at this time in 2007. Compared to the 2004 baseline, our current inventory is 62% higher.
Current Pending Sales (235 units) are up significantly over 2007 (149 units/58%), 2008 (161 units/46%), and 2009 (185 units/27%), but as I have stated, ad nauseam, the number is skewed by the amount of Short Sales that, in most cases, take a very long time to close, if they close at all. To compare the health of the Pending status data, I have to presume that there were no Short Sales in 2004 and 2007. As the REO activity happens in any market and seems to be relatively nominal even in our current market area, I will not discount those types of sales from the statistics. Of the 235 current Pending sales, 77 of them are listed as Short Sales, leaving a net amount of non-Short Sales at 158 units. That would mean that we are slightly ahead of 2007 (6%) but far behind 2004 (35%).
The Good News/Bad New department is the May Closed Sales. First the good news; May 2010 Closed Sales at 131 units are down slightly from 2007 (136 units) but up from 2008 (105 units) and 2009 (90 units). Also a strong indication of increased demand is that 58 of those closed transactions sold for the asking price or more. The sad part is that of the 131 units that closed escrow this May, only 6 of them were Short Sales compared to the 77 Pending properties that are listed as Short Sales. I guess one could argue that the 6 close Short Sales are better than the mere 5 that closed in May 2009. On another positive note, when discounting the Short Sales that closed escrow in May 2010 the number of closed escrows represents 65% of those closed in 2004, the year with the highest number of closed units in my 10-year survey.
REO listings and sales are showing a respectable consistency. There are 10 units of bank-owned property in both the Active status and Pending status and 9 bank-owned units closed escrow in May.