Not quite, but there are some serious signs that we’ve not only passed the bottom of the market with regard to the number of transactions, but the values may have hit or passed the bottom as well.
The Active listing inventory for the six communities I survey has increased approximately 3.6% since last week, but still below the level it was at this time last year. In fact, the number of homes currently in the Active status (345) is nearly in the middle between 2008 when the inventory was lower (321) and 2009 when the inventory was higher (382). In 2004 the number of active listings at this time was 188, nearly half of what is currently available and indicating a very low supply of inventory.
The number of Pending sales for the same database this weekend (220) is higher than 2007 (151), 2008 (143) and 2009 (146), but lower than the baseline year of 2004 (242). Pending Sales have increased from 207 homes last week to 220 this week. My suspicion is that a significant number of these Pending sales are mired in the short sale approval process, but I won’t be able to verify it until I specifically survey that information later in the month.
Month-to-dated Closed sales (49) are nearly double that of last year (26) but, lower than 2007 (54) and 2008 (61). Month-to-date Closed sales in 2004 were 81.
The numbers this week suggest to me that, across the board of locations and price ranges, we are in various stages of price stabilization and, in some circumstances, slight appreciation from its lowest recent price point.
Last Tuesday I attended an Industry Leaders Briefing for the California Association of Realtors and was unable to view many of the new listings on Brokers’ Tour our company has taken. This Sunday I attended several public open houses that I had missed the previous Tuesday. Of the new listings I visited, there were encouraging reports from the agents representing these homes. There were many reports of multiple offers already being written on these listings or offers that had been accepted the evening before the open house.
The survey statistics for the month-to-date Closed sales in San Mateo support the talk on the street about multiple offers. Of the 24 Closed sales to date, 11 of them sold for the asking price or more. Curiously, as I mentioned last week, the majority of the overbid sales prices for San Mateo are from the median price and above rather than below the median as it was the first half of last year. It seems that the sales during the peak of financial meltdown were primarily in the entry level price range of most communities. The buyers during that time, in significant numbers, were investors paying cash for bank owned properties. Their primary intent was to refurbish the homes and “flip” them for moderate profits. Our agents are reporting that most buyers purchasing the more expensive properties intend to be owner-occupants. In my 30 years in the real estate industry, this market appears to be the most “balanced” market I’ve experienced in quite some time. Depending on the location, condition and price of the home, it is neither a “Buyer’s” or “Seller’s” market. The federal tax credits will expire at the end of the month. The talk is that the California Tax credit will run out of money quickly. I would think that these credits would have more of an impact on the purchases of the mid-to-entry level priced homes. Depending on the pricing and number of bidders on the median to upper level priced homes, there may be $18,000 worth of negotiation in the price to compensate for the loss of the tax credit.
If only I had a dime for each time I came here.. Incredible writing.