If keeps raining any longer, our agents may consider listing and selling arcs.
Spring has sprung, at least on the calendar, and this is the time of year that we have heard is the most popular time for sellers to put their homes on the market. Starting each year typically around late November through February, many of our agents tell me of the clients who will be waiting until springtime to list their homes. The reasons are varied and mostly merited. I begin this blog with a look at the numbers and trend line for the Active listings. As of this Sunday, there were 333 single family homes in the six communities I survey that are in the Active status. This compares to 295, up approximately 13%, over last week. Again, as mentioned in previous blogs, 2004 was the year since 1999 with the most closed escrows in both Single Family Residences and Condominium/Townhome sales in San Mateo County. As a point of comparison there were 163 single family homes in the Active status at this time in 2004 which means that there are 170 more homes for sale or 104% more inventory than 2004. If you look at the trend line for the active listings over the previous three years, you would see that the inventory has been increasing in 2009 and 2009 over 2007. For an extended period of time, the trend line has shown a dramatic decrease in the inventory for 2010. While the current inventory is lower than last year, it is not lower than 2008 or 2007 and therefore the trend line for Active listings is not as demonstrative this week for declining inventory as before. It will be interesting to see the direction the number of Active listings will take as the Spring season progresses.
The number of homes in the Pending Status is higher than the previous three years and consistent with a pattern I’ve witnessed for approximately 8 or 9 months. As discussed in previous e-mail, a significant number of these homes in escrow are Short Sale transactions and are mired in the Pending status for periods much longer that non-short sale transactions. It is encouraging that the number of Pending sales is the same as it was last week. There are some respectable numbers for the Sold properties which means that the same number of homes moved from Active to Pending as did Pending to Sold.
There is some interesting data to observe regarding the properties in the Sold status. There were 28 month-to-date closed escrows in the six communities. This represents a 115% increase over the month-to-date closed escrows last year at this time, but down 20% compared the banner year 2004 at this time. Of particular interest are the Sold properties in San Mateo. 18 properties have closed escrow so far. 9 of them were sold for the asking price or more. I have been reporting that generally the multiple offers and overbids were occurring in the Median to Lowest priced homes. In San Mateo to date, 5 of the “at list price” or “above list price” sales were from the median and above. Leaving 4 overbid sales at under the median. Four of the five highest priced homes that closed escrow sold for at or above the asking price. And the one of those five that sold for under the asking price was only $1,400 under.
It was reported in the Chronicle Sunday that the interest rates for 30-year fixed mortgages has been increasing. As the government will be discontinuing its involvement in the secondary market, the rate increases have been anticipated. It will be interesting to see how much higher the rates will go once the federal involvement is over. The Federal Reserve is has indicated they will keep rates low to help the economy recover, but will increase the rates as soon as any indication of inflation should appear. The low interest rates controlled by the Federal Reserve will affect the bottom line for the banks more than the consumer. However, rising interest rates have historically caused short term increases in sales as consumers try to purchase before rates go higher.
Here are the links to the surveys for this week. Keep dry and if it continues to rain much longer, start gathering the animals two-by-two.
4.11.2010 Chart.pdf
APRIL SHOWERS BRING MAY FLOWERS
April 12, 2010 14 Comments
This is a great blog Pete! You are absolutly right and the trend line doesn’t lie. It seems like the spring inventory is a bit sluggish, and we are seeing a slow start to the usually hectic spring season. Even though active listings have incresed by 13% over last week, it still seems that “good” inventory is difficult to find in some areas. It’s definitely going to be interesting to watch the spring inventory and see if it gains some momentum in the coming months.
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